Saturday, 13 September 2014

Crocetta favorisce Comiso?

In un commento ad un articolo recentemente apparso tu TP24.it, Trapani Birgi, Ryanair cancella altre sei rotte dall'aeroporto "Vincenzo Florio", un lettore ha lasciato un commento che ha sintetizzato un'opinione probabilmente abbastanza condivisa, ma a mio parere improbabile:
ma secondo voi Crocetta tra Comiso-Gela e birgi-trapani ha dubbi su chi favorire?
Il mio parere è che la contrapposizione tra Trapani Birgi e Comiso è inesistente: sono due bacini aeroportuali, geografici, turistici, elettorali, del tutto diversi.

Non ha senso favorire Comiso a discapito di Birgi, non credo sia quello il motivo dell'arresto del processo di sviluppo dello scalo aeroportuale trapanese, la ragione invece è la scarsa comprensione di come funzioni il mercato turistico dei concorrenti mediterranei, e non solo a livello di Regione Siciliana: il governo centrale ha messo una imposta di 6,50 Euro per l'imbarco di ogni passeggero, per pagare la cassa integrazione in deroga pluriennale dei lavoratori del comparto aereo (ad esempio di Alitalia). Ovvio che tale imposta penalizzi in maniera particolare gli aeroporti come Trapani Birgi (o Comiso), e che disincentivi il turismo, però questo non impedisce ai politici nazionali di blaterare su come si debba sviluppare il turismo che loro stessi azzoppano.

Che poi, diciamoci la verità, ma un qualche giornalista ha mai chiesto al Sig. Crocetta se sa che il governo italiano tassa gli imbarchi a 6,50 Euro a passeggero per pagare gli ammortizzatori sociali agli ex Alitalia, ed usare quel che resta per tappare i buchi dell'INPS? Ai dipartimenti regionali ai trasporti, al turismo, qualcuno ha fatto delle indagini, o si è anche soltanto posto il problema, per vedere di capire qual'è l'impatto di una tale imposizione fiscale sullo sviluppo del turismo siciliano? E dove finisce la tanto sbandierata autonomia se il governo centrale può penalizzare un comparto economico siciliano a suo completo piacimento senza che il governo siciliano non dico si opponga, ma almeno si renda conto che l'azione del governo centrale abbia penalizzato imprenditori e lavoratori siciliani senza nemmeno coinvolgere il governo siciliano in una discussione sul merito di una tale decisione?

Friday, 15 August 2014

Comparative attractiveness of London for working newcomers from six selected countries in 2013/14

A notorious old saying was suggesting that London streets may be paved with gold, even though, as the good old Dick Whittington discovered the hard way all this time ago, this may be practically true only for a very selected bold and lucky few. A multitude of newcomers lands every given year in London nonetheless, hoping perhaps to follow the footsteps of that medieval merchant, "Sir" Richard Whittington, whose rags to riches life inspired the folk tale which popularised the old saying.

While London is seen as a city of opportunity from people from the most disparate, and often desperate, corners of the earth, people from different countries are attracted by London at different levels of intensity. We may in example choose a random sample of six selected countries, let's say: Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Germany. By utter chance, all of six those countries are Eurozone member states. Would you expect the active population of the countries in this sample to be attracted by London at the same level of intensity? If so, the following chart may come as a surprise:

Comparative attractiveness of London for working newcomers from six selected countries in 2013-14

The chart is trying to show the comparative attractiveness of London for working newcomers from six selected countries in 2013/14. Specifically, on the right hand side of the chart, the number of new NINo registrants are adjusted to take in account the different sizes of the respective active population in the country of origin, using Germany as pivot, to visualize the comparative attractiveness of London for working newcomers from six selected countries in 2013/14.

Given that the Dublin to London is the busiest passenger air international route, and in general the short distance and the historical ties, it should come to no surprise that Irish are particularly sensitive to the charm of the modern Babylon. Historical ties come possibly into play to help explain the Portuguese fascination with our much desired Cockaigne, as there must be a reason why the Anglo-Portuguese Alliance, well into its seventh consecutive century of life, is the oldest alliance in the world that is still in force. On the other hand, while it is not surprising that, given the current status of the national economy in both Spain and Italy, people from both those countries may currently feel lured by London more than in any other time in recent decades, it is somewhat puzzling to note that Greeks appear slightly less enthralled than their Mediterranean counterparts. Last but not least, looking at how hard is for London to attract Germans, one wonders if this behaviour may be not so much linked with the state of the German economy, but to a completely different class of non economic related issues.

Tuesday, 12 August 2014

Spaniards vs Poles when starting to work in London: borough by borough

While Spaniards and Italians appear to share a very similar taste regarding the London boroughs of choice when moving in London, the comparison with the Poles suggests a somewhat different story:

Spaniards vs Poles working in London for the 1st time in 2013-14 by borough

Also in this case, this divergence doesn't appear to be just due recent fads (albeit in this 12 years time frame the two series aren't clearly of the same order of magnitude):

Spaniards vs Poles working in London for the 1st time from 2002 to 2014 by borough

Spaniards and Italians starting to work in London: a shared experience?

When they start to work in London after moving to the UK for the first time, Spaniards and Italians appears to share a very similar taste for a specific set of London boroughs:

Spaniards vs Italians working in London for the 1st time in 2013-14 by borough

This doesn't actually appear to be a recent phenomenon, but it has been amazingly consistent in the last dozen years:

Spaniards vs Italians working in London for the 1st time from 2002 to 2014 by borough

Where Spaniards go to live after landing in London?

In which district are Spaniards living the very first time they start to work in London?

Spaniards working in London for the 1st time in 2013-14

Now, how that compares with, say, Italians or Poles?

Monday, 11 August 2014

People in employment: 2012-2013 differential by London borough of residence

People living in Lambeth and Barnet appears to be sharing the lions' share of the recent surge in job creation in London:
People in employment 2012-2013 differential by London borough of residence
On the other hand Southwark and Greenwich didn't have a great job market year.

As a term of comparison, this is what happened in the last 8 years:
People in employment 2005-2013 differential by London borough of residence

Italian migration increase in London: which borough is seeing the greater impact?

On which borough are we noticing the greater impact of the recent increase of Italian migration in London?

The following chart is a proposed raw measure elaborated on https://www.nomisweb.co.uk data, retrieved from the London Data Store.

Impact of Italian first time workers on London job market by London borough of residence 2013-14
Impact of Italian first time workers on London job market by London borough of residence 2013-14

The measure is a raw one [1], and it doesn't have any other particular meaning than to show the impact those incoming Italians may have on the working population dynamics of a given borough.
To be absolutely clear, this doesn't show, actually cannot show, if Italians may be taking all new local jobs, or that they may be "stealing" jobs to people previously living on a particular borough, but it is more of measure of how much Italians tend or like to move in on a specific borough when they first enter the job market in London, in relation to that borough job market dynamics.

Italians may be pouring on Brent, but this may merely means that the decrease of the number of local active participants in the job market may be partially due local people finding better jobs and moving to other districts, as they are substituted by Italians (and perhaps other overseas workers) with lower job perspectives.

[1] it is basically a ratio of the number of NINo registered for the first time to people moving in UK from Italy to the number of job positions created by and for residents of a given borough in the given year, in case of job creation, or otherwise to the number of job position destroyed by and for residents of a given borough in the given year plus the number of NINo registered for the first time to people moving in UK from Italy, in case of job destruction, my Excel formula reads as:
=IF('2005-2013'!AW4 [less than] 0,(1+ABS('2013 Overseas Pressure'!C5/'2005-2013'!AW4))*100,(100*'2013 Overseas Pressure'!C5)/'2005-2013'!AW4)
This cannot show incoming Italians are taking all new jobs on a particular borough as the borough referred is the area of residence, not necessarily where they found their first job.