Comparative attractiveness of London for working newcomers from six selected countries in 2013/14

A notorious old saying was suggesting that London streets may be paved with gold, even though, as the good old Dick Whittington discovered the hard way all this time ago, this may be practically true only for a very selected bold and lucky few. A multitude of newcomers lands every given year in London nonetheless, hoping perhaps to follow the footsteps of that medieval merchant, "Sir" Richard Whittington, whose rags to riches life inspired the folk tale which popularised the old saying.

While London is seen as a city of opportunity from people from the most disparate, and often desperate, corners of the earth, people from different countries are attracted by London at different levels of intensity. We may in example choose a random sample of six selected countries, let's say: Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Germany. By utter chance, all of six those countries are Eurozone member states. Would you expect the active population of the countries in this sample to be attracted by London at the same level of intensity? If so, the following chart may come as a surprise:



The chart is trying to show the comparative attractiveness of London for working newcomers from six selected countries in 2013/14. Specifically, on the right hand side of the chart, the number of new NINo registrants are adjusted to take in account the different sizes of the respective active population in the country of origin, using Germany as pivot, to visualize the comparative attractiveness of London for working newcomers from six selected countries in 2013/14.

Given that the Dublin to London is the busiest passenger air international route, and in general the short distance and the historical ties, it should come to no surprise that Irish are particularly sensitive to the charm of the modern Babylon. Historical ties come possibly into play to help explain the Portuguese fascination with our much desired Cockaigne, as there must be a reason why the Anglo-Portuguese Alliance, well into its seventh consecutive century of life, is the oldest alliance in the world that is still in force. On the other hand, while it is not surprising that, given the current status of the national economy in both Spain and Italy, people from both those countries may currently feel lured by London more than in any other time in recent decades, it is somewhat puzzling to note that Greeks appear slightly less enthralled than their Mediterranean counterparts. Last but not least, looking at how hard is for London to attract Germans, one wonders if this behaviour may be not so much linked with the state of the German economy, but to a completely different class of non economic related issues.

Spaniards vs Poles when starting to work in London: borough by borough

While Spaniards and Italians appear to share a very similar taste regarding the London boroughs of choice when moving in London, the comparison with the Poles suggests a somewhat different story:



Also in this case, this divergence doesn't appear to be just due recent fads (albeit in this 12 years time frame the two series aren't clearly of the same order of magnitude):

Spaniards and Italians starting to work in London: a shared experience?

When they start to work in London after moving to the UK for the first time, Spaniards and Italians appears to share a very similar taste for a specific set of London boroughs:



This doesn't actually appear to be a recent phenomenon, but it has been amazingly consistent in the last dozen years:

Where Spaniards go to live after landing in London?

In which district are Spaniards living the very first time they start to work in London?



Now, how that compares with, say, Italians or Poles?

People in employment: 2012-2013 differential by London borough of residence

People living in Lambeth and Barnet appears to be sharing the lions' share of the recent surge in job creation in London:

On the other hand Southwark and Greenwich didn't have a great job market year.

As a term of comparison, this is what happened in the last 8 years:

Italian migration increase in London: which borough is seeing the greater impact?

On which borough are we noticing the greater impact of the recent increase of Italian migration in London?

The following chart is a proposed raw measure elaborated on https://www.nomisweb.co.uk data, retrieved from the London Data Store.


Impact of Italian first time workers on London job market by London borough of residence 2013-14

The measure is a raw one [1], and it doesn't have any other particular meaning than to show the impact those incoming Italians may have on the working population dynamics of a given borough.
To be absolutely clear, this doesn't show, actually cannot show, if Italians may be taking all new local jobs, or that they may be "stealing" jobs to people previously living on a particular borough, but it is more of measure of how much Italians tend or like to move in on a specific borough when they first enter the job market in London, in relation to that borough job market dynamics.

Italians may be pouring on Brent, but this may merely means that the decrease of the number of local active participants in the job market may be partially due local people finding better jobs and moving to other districts, as they are substituted by Italians (and perhaps other overseas workers) with lower job perspectives.

[1] it is basically a ratio of the number of NINo registered for the first time to people moving in UK from Italy to the number of job positions created by and for residents of a given borough in the given year, in case of job creation, or otherwise to the number of job position destroyed by and for residents of a given borough in the given year plus the number of NINo registered for the first time to people moving in UK from Italy, in case of job destruction, my Excel formula reads as:

=IF('2005-2013'!AW4 [less than] 0,(1+ABS('2013 Overseas Pressure'!C5/'2005-2013'!AW4))*100,(100*'2013 Overseas Pressure'!C5)/'2005-2013'!AW4)

This cannot show incoming Italians are taking all new jobs on a particular borough as the borough referred is the area of residence, not necessarily where they found their first job.

Where are Italians living when they start to work in London?

When they start to work in London after moving to the UK for the first time, Italians appear to like more some districts (i.e. Westminster) and to dislike some other (i.e. Havering).

The following chart should give a more complete view of the Italians' preferences:


Please note the chart axis  is logarithmic, in base 2, so each larger circle is representing a doubling in population.

A tale of two boroughs: Italians landing in Kensington and Chelsea vs Tower Hamlets 2002 - 2014

In absolute terms, the number of Italians being issued their first national insurance number (NINo) in Kensington and Chelsea more than doubled between the 2002/03 and the 2013/14 fiscal years.
On the other hand, while up to and including the 2004/05 fiscal year the Italians starting their London working life were landing in Kensington and Chelsea in almost twice the number of those landing in the less affluent borough of Tower Hamlets, since then the latter has seen an Italian invasion: in 2013/14 the number of Italians starting their working life in UK moving to Tower Hamlets has increased more than fifteenfold!
The following chart graphically describes the relative comparison between the two boroughs: Italians are clearly flocking to Tower Hamlets.

While Tower Hamlets is less affluent than Kensington and Chelsea, its average income is still higher than the average income of more than half of Italy. Charts describing a very similar dynamics could be produced using Brent, Haringey or Lambeth in the place of Tower Hamlets, while the raise of Italian immigration to Newham or Waltham Forest appears to have picked up only in the last couple of years.

Where Italians go to live after landing in London?

In which district are Italians living the very first time they start to work in London?



Surprisingly, or may be not, Kensington and Merton are not even in the top 10.

The Italian invasion of London: 2013/14

According to recently published data from the London Datastore, for the first time in the 12 years recorded in their dataset,  in 2013/14 Italy was the top country of origin for National Insurance Number (NINo) registrations to adult overseas nationals entering London.

In the 2013/14 fiscal year a stunning 12% of all new NINo registration of adult overseas nationals in London were accounted by Italians:


Please note this measure is possibly a very low estimation of immigration, as it doesn't take in account non working partners, children or other dependants that may migrate with the breadwinner. This is really as all the economically active inhabitants of one small Italian city, such as Ascoli Piceno or Mazara del Vallo or Rovigo, may have packed and moved in 12 months to London.

Update 2015 August 09
The London Datastore has moved the dataset used to build the diagram to a new location.